The Voice of Reason: Romney Will Win Election

Two weeks until the November 6 election, the numbers are starting to turn markedly in the direction of Republican candidate Mitt Romney.

The latest polls show Romney up 50-46% in the Rasmussen Reports poll, up up 49-48% in the ABC News/Washington Post poll and up 51-46% in the Gallup poll. Of the latest polls including data through October 22, only the IBD/TIPP poll shows President Obama up two points, 47-45%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Averaging the two most respected polls, Rasmussen Reports and Gallup, Romney leads with 50.5% to 46% for President Obama.  With most polls showing a third party candidate receiving only 1% of the vote, this means that only 2.5% of voters are truly "undecided" in these two polls.

If four years of on-the-job training haven't convinced voters to cast their ballot for President Obama, chances are that two more weeks of campaigning won't either.  Historically, two-thirds or more of undecided voters  vote against the incumbent when a competent challenger is on the ballot, which means that in all likelihood Romney will pick up around another 1.5% of votes, giving him about 52% to about 47% for the President and 1% for a third party candidate.  A 5% percent spread will result in an easy Electoral College victory for the Republican candidate.

Prior to the first debate, the President was clearly in the lead, although he was barely able to reach the 50% point in the polls, which demonstrated voters' dissatisfaction with him and his record. In early September, the President was up by 7% in the Gallop poll and 5% in the Rasmussen Reports poll.  This lead came after spending $150 million in negative advertising against Romney by the Obama Campaign and its super PACs.

At the first debate, however, voters who were  leaning for President Obama were able to see Romney as someone who clearly is a competent candidate.  Viewing Romney through the unfiltered lens on the televisions in their living rooms, voters saw the Republican candidate as someone who was clearly able to stand toe-to-toe with the President and actually beat him soundly at explaining how he would revive the economy, the most important issue of this campaign.  More importantly, they saw Romney not as the uncaring person painted by $150 million worth of Obama Campaign advertising, but as a caring human being who is a faithful husband, a strong father and a leading member of his church.  Those leaning voters started moving to Romney and the polls began to reflect this change. Voters were able to compare a candidate with an economic plan against a President with a horrific economic record and who also has not explained what he would do differently in a second term.

With each subsequent debate, Romney solidified himself as a competent, caring candidate, equal to or better than the President we currently have.  During last night's debate on foreign policy, Romney was actually able to appear more Presidential than President Obama, describing a high-level vision for American foreign policy instead of the snarky and condescending comments made by the President. While most believe President Obama won this debate because of his aggressiveness, Romney achieved what he wanted to achieve -- to present himself to the American people as a competent leader on foreign policy and not the warmonger as he's been portrayed by the Obama Campaign. In comparison, the President did not achieve what he need to achieve -- an overwhelming victory to change the direction of the polls.

The fat lady may not be singing yet, but unless something changes dramatically in the next two weeks, she clearly is warming up her vocal cords.